Trading Expectancy Calculator (Win Rate, Payoff Ratio, Profit Factor)
Average result per trade from the win rate and the average win and loss, with the profit factor, the break-even win rate and the expected total over many trades.
Results
What this tool does
Expectancy is what a strategy earns on average per trade: the winning rate times the average win, minus the losing rate times the average loss. A low win rate can still be profitable if the average win is large enough — a payoff ratio of 2 breaks even at a win rate of one in three — and a high win rate can lose money if the occasional loss is large. The result is an average over many trades; a short run can differ widely, and the inputs come from past results that need not repeat. This is arithmetic on your own figures, not a recommendation.
Formula
expectancy = win rate × avg win − (1 − win rate) × avg loss · break-even win rate = loss ÷ (win + loss)
Variables
| Symbol | Meaning | Unit |
|---|---|---|
wr | Win rate | % |
aw | Average winning trade | — |
al | Average losing trade (enter as a positive number) | — |
n | Number of trades | — |
EX | Expectancy per trade | — |
ER | Expectancy in multiples of the average loss (R) | R |
PF | Profit factor (0 if there are no losses) | — |
BW | Win rate needed to break even | % |
PR | Payoff ratio (average win ÷ average loss) | — |
TT | Expected total over all the trades | — |
Worked example
- Win rate45 %
- Average winning trade300
- Average losing trade (enter as a positive number)150
- Number of trades100
- Expectancy per trade52.50
- Expectancy in multiples of the average loss (R)0.350 R
- Profit factor (0 if there are no losses)1.64
- Win rate needed to break even33.3 %
- Payoff ratio (average win ÷ average loss)2.00
- Expected total over all the trades5250
Limitations
- This is an informational calculator, not personalised financial advice. Rates, fees, taxes and contract conditions vary between institutions and countries.
- The result is an estimate based only on the values you type. Real situations often include factors this calculator does not know about.